XRP Slides 10% as Traders Turn to Bitcoin-Yen’s Descending Triangle Amid Growing Fed Cut Expectations

Fed Rate Cut Bets Fuel BTC Optimism, but BTC/JPY Descending Triangle Signals Caution

Rising expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 are lending support to the broader Bitcoin (BTC) bull case. However, technical and macro signals—particularly from the BTC/JPY pair—point to possible near-term volatility as bond yield spreads shift in favor of the Japanese yen.

BTC/JPY Forms Descending Triangle at Highs

While BTC/USD continues to consolidate below $120,000 with no clear trend, attention has shifted to BTC/JPY, where a descending triangle pattern has emerged at record levels. The structure features a downward-sloping trendline indicating weakening bullish momentum, alongside flat horizontal support near ¥17,160,000 (approximately $117,000).

A breakdown below this support could confirm a bearish reversal, with downside targets aligning with the rising trendline formed earlier this cycle. On the flip side, a breakout from the triangle may trigger new all-time highs—supported by growing rate-cut bets.

Futures markets now price in 76 basis points of Fed rate cuts for 2026, a significant jump from the 25 bps priced in as recently as April. These dovish expectations are complemented by rising long-end bond yields globally, reflecting market confidence in continued fiscal and monetary accommodation.

JPY Strength Could Weigh on BTC

However, developments in USD/JPY suggest potential headwinds for BTC/JPY. The U.S.-Japan 30-year bond yield spread has narrowed to its lowest point since August 2022, pointing to growing strength in the yen.

A sustained JPY rally could fuel broader risk-off sentiment, potentially capping upside for risk assets, including BTC.

AI Insight: BTC/JPY is consolidating within a descending triangle despite an intact long-term uptrend. While Fed rate cut bets support BTC in USD terms, JPY strength could limit upside or even trigger a technical breakdown in the BTC/JPY pair.

BTC Key Levels

Resistance: $120,000, $121,181
Support: $116,000, $115,739, $111,965

XRP Faces Technical Breakdown After 10% Drop

XRP fell over 10% in the last 24 hours, aligning with bearish chart signals. The price briefly found support at $2.99—the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the $1.90 to $3.92 rally.

Although a short-lived rebound brought XRP back to $3.10, momentum remains negative. The Guppy multiple moving average has flipped bearish, and both price and trend indicators have slipped below the Ichimoku cloud.

If $2.99 fails to hold, a drop toward $2.57 (the 61.8% retracement level) could be next. Bulls would need to reclaim $3.35 to regain control.

AI Insight: XRP has broken down from both a rising trendline and a horizontal channel—clear signs of weakening bullish structure.

XRP Key Levels

Resistance: $3.35, $3.65, $4.00
Support: $2.99, $2.65, $2.57

ETH Slides Within Descending Channel

Ethereum (ETH) is also under pressure, trading within a descending channel marked by consistent lower highs and lower lows on the hourly chart. A bearish crossover between the 50- and 100-hour simple moving averages, combined with a softening 200-hour SMA, reinforces the downside risk.

ETH currently trades below the Ichimoku cloud, adding further bearish weight. A sustained move above $3,740 would be required to reverse this trend.

AI Insight: Watch the 200-hour SMA near $3,593—losing this support could open the door to deeper losses.

ETH Key Levels

Resistance: $3,740, $4,000, $4,109
Support: $3,593, $3,480, $3,081

SOL Mirrors ETH’s Bearish Setup

Solana (SOL) is showing a near-identical setup to ETH, locked in a descending channel and trading below the cloud. The Guppy indicator has flipped bearish, reinforcing short-term downside risks.

Until price reclaims $192—the most recent lower high—bears remain in control. Any short-term rebounds may face resistance at the upper channel boundary and underside of the cloud.