Bitcoin Recovers Above $115K as ETF Inflows Resume, But Caution Lingers

Bitcoin (BTC) edged back above $115,000 in early Asia trading Monday, rebounding from last week’s sharp selloff that triggered over $1 billion in liquidations and briefly pushed the asset to $113,000.

The recovery comes alongside renewed institutional inflows, with Bitwise reporting $18.74 million in net ETF inflows—a potential reversal after one of the largest outflow days on record last Friday. The move suggests tentative stabilization following a turbulent three-week stretch for crypto markets.

Friday’s drop marked the third straight weekly decline for BTC, driven by a combination of disappointing U.S. jobs data and a new round of tariffs from Washington, which triggered a broader risk-off move across both equities and crypto. Altcoins were hit especially hard, with Solana (SOL) down nearly 20% on the week and Ethereum (ETH) falling close to 10%.

Despite the volatility, QCP Capital remains optimistic on the broader trend. In a Monday note, the firm pointed to Bitcoin’s record-high monthly close in July as a sign of structural strength, viewing the recent pullback as a leverage reset, not a shift in long-term momentum.

Still, not all traders are convinced the bottom is in. On Polymarket, traders currently assign a 49% probability that BTC dips below $100,000 by year-end, up slightly from the previous day. The odds reflect a cautious outlook amid ongoing macro uncertainty—even as underlying fundamentals like regulatory clarity, stablecoin growth, and tokenization adoption continue to support the long-term narrative.

Looking ahead, the next short-term catalyst may arrive during the Asia session, as updated ETF flow data from U.S. issuers is expected by midday Hong Kong time. Continued inflows and declining implied volatility could reinforce a buy-the-dip thesis and help shift sentiment back toward risk-on.

Market Highlights:

• BTC: Holding above $115,000 as institutional flows re-emerge.
• ETH: Steady near $3,700; Polymarket odds show growing confidence in a break above $4,000 this month.
• Gold: Extends gains for a third session, hitting a two-week high as soft U.S. data boosts expectations of a September Fed rate cut (now seen as 86% likely, per CME FedWatch).
• Nikkei 225: Opens 0.54% higher after Trump announces steep tariffs on Indian exports.
• S&P 500: Jumps 1.47% to 6,329.94 on Monday, snapping a four-day losing streak with its strongest performance since May.