Attention has shifted to whether bitcoin can defend nearby support levels as the calendar turns, after December’s failed rally cast doubt on the durability of the recent advance.

Bitcoin and ether finished December without the seasonal lift traders typically expect, closing out a quarter that underscored how fragile crypto price action can become when liquidity thins and risk appetite wanes. The anticipated “Santa rally” never materialized. Instead, repeated attempts by bitcoin to regain key technical levels were met with steady selling, while ether and other large-cap tokens followed suit.

Bitcoin is set to close December down roughly 22%, marking its weakest monthly performance since December 2018. Ether, meanwhile, is on pace to end the fourth quarter of 2025 down 28.07%, according to CoinGlass data.

The Santa rally — a term used to describe the tendency for markets to rise in the final week of December and early January — is often driven by lighter liquidity, year-end portfolio adjustments, and optimistic holiday sentiment. This year, however, December trading more closely resembled a broad reduction in risk exposure than the beginning of a renewed uptrend.

That soft finish is significant, as crypto markets have historically leaned on strong year-end inflows to establish early-cycle momentum. With bitcoin’s fourth-quarter performance now firmly negative, the broader market tone has shifted toward risk-off conditions.

The divergence with precious metals has been particularly notable. Gold has surged to record highs amid expectations of interest-rate cuts and elevated geopolitical uncertainty, while silver has rallied sharply and platinum has also posted fresh highs, as previously reported by CoinDesk. Sustained central-bank buying and increased ETF allocations have reinforced gold’s role as a defensive store of value.

Bitcoin, by contrast, has behaved more like a high-beta risk asset. Even as the macro backdrop increasingly points toward easier monetary policy, the cryptocurrency has struggled to hold gains in the absence of broader risk-on participation.

That pattern has characterized much of late 2025, with rebounds quickly sold into, leverage reduced over the holiday period, and U.S. trading hours often seeing the heaviest selling as funds tidy up exposures. Volatile bond yields and an uneven dollar have kept investors focused on capital preservation — a setup that typically favors gold ahead of more speculative assets.

The next test will be whether bitcoin can hold its recent support zones into the new year. Failure to do so could see the abandoned Santa rally viewed as an early signal that the market still requires a deeper reset before a more durable advance can emerge.