Bitcoin’s traditional four-year market cycle may no longer dictate price movements, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder and CIO of Maelstrom, who points to shifts in global monetary policy as a key driver for continued gains.

BTC is unlikely to enter a bear market in the coming months, Hayes argues, as accommodative monetary conditions are expected to prevail, effectively rendering the historical four-year halving cycle obsolete.

In his essay, “Long Live the King!”, published Thursday, Hayes emphasized that previous bear markets—in 2014, 2018, and 2022—were primarily triggered by monetary tightening in major economies, rather than the four-year halving schedule. On each of these occasions, Bitcoin fell between 70% and 80% from peak bull-market levels.

This perspective aligns with analysis from CoinDesk in 2023, which noted that Bitcoin’s so-called four-year bull-bear cycle, often tied to mining reward halvings, is in reality driven by changes in fiat liquidity rather than the halving events themselves.

“As the four-year anniversary of this fourth cycle approaches, traders attempt to rely on historical patterns to forecast the end of this bull run,” Hayes wrote. “The four-year cycle is dead, and the coming surge in fiat liquidity will sustain the bull market.”

Understanding the Halving Cycle
Halving refers to the programmed reduction of Bitcoin mining rewards every four years. Historically, BTC has followed a roughly four-year rhythm: a bull run leading up to and immediately after the halving, followed by a bear market typically starting 16–18 months later. The fourth halving occurred in April 2024, prompting some market participants to expect a looming downturn.

Why This Cycle is Different
Hayes contends that the current bull market is unlikely to end because monetary policy is set to remain accommodative, with global money supply expected to grow rather than contract.

In the U.S., newly elected President Trump is advocating for policies to “run the economy hot,” including measures to reduce debt and unlock trillions in home equity through lower housing costs. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to around 4% in September 2025, with further reductions of up to 100 basis points anticipated over the next year.

Japan may soon join the easing cycle under its new prime minister, a proponent of ultra-stimulatory policies similar to Abenomics, while China’s focus on ending deflation suggests Beijing is unlikely to tighten liquidity, further supporting BTC price gains.

“Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future,” Hayes concluded.

With global liquidity set to expand and monetary policy remaining accommodative, Hayes believes Bitcoin’s bull market is poised to continue, challenging the relevance of the traditional four-year cycle.