MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) recent underperformance relative to Bitcoin has prompted 10x Research to recommend a tactical bearish options strategy, citing growing signs of investor fatigue despite Bitcoin reaching new record highs.

In a note to clients on Friday, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen proposed a bear put spread on MSTR—buying the June 27 $370 put while selling the $300 put. The strategy, priced at $13.89 as of Friday, offers a defined-risk bearish position with a maximum profit if MSTR trades at or below $300 by expiration.

“This trade captures the growing disconnect between Bitcoin’s strength and MicroStrategy’s fading momentum and volatility,” Thielen said, noting that MSTR’s inability to keep pace with BTC may reflect broader hesitation among traditional finance investors.

MSTR closed at $369 on Friday, down 7% on the day. Meanwhile, Bitcoin pushed past $110,000 last week, continuing its parabolic move. Despite MicroStrategy’s holdings of 576,230 BTC—the largest of any publicly traded company—the stock has stalled around $440, far below its all-time high of $543 set in late 2021.

Thielen, who accurately forecasted Bitcoin’s breakout above six figures, sees the divergence as significant. While MSTR has long served as a proxy for institutional BTC exposure, the current decoupling raises questions about whether equity investors are becoming more cautious—even as crypto prices climb.

A similar divergence between MSTR and BTC occurred in late 2021, just before Bitcoin’s previous cycle top. While this isn’t a guaranteed signal, Thielen believes it’s worth watching.

“Bitcoin is breaking records, but Strategy is stalling—and that divergence matters,” Thielen said. “Retail is still chasing the dream, unaware that the right-tail upside may be gone.”

He added that the bear put spread isn’t just a bearish trade on MSTR—it also serves as a strategic hedge for long BTC holders looking to protect gains.

As Bitcoin continues its rally, market participants may increasingly look toward asymmetric hedges like this one, especially if equity correlations begin to weaken.