Asia Morning Briefing: Bitcoin, Ether Range-Bound as Markets Await CPI and China-U.S. Signals

Investors remain cautious as the U.S. government shutdown delays most economic releases, while China signals restraint on export controls, keeping both crypto and equity markets range-bound ahead of Friday’s CPI report.

Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $108,164, up slightly from Monday but still down 2% for the week, while Ether (ETH) hovers around $3,815. QCP Capital described the market as in “narrow-range equilibrium,” with the CPI report acting as the “singular anchor” for risk sentiment and policy expectations. A softer-than-expected 0.2% print could bolster Bitcoin’s upside as liquidity expectations improve, while volatility is likely to remain elevated until then.

Policymakers’ moves are also in focus: Polymarket traders assign a 77% probability that Washington and Beijing will reach a tariff agreement by Nov. 10, while the odds of Trump’s 100% tariffs on China have dropped to 16%. QCP notes that Trump appears to favor a symbolic deal over confrontation, a stance reinforced by his weekend comments that the U.S. “wants to help China, not hurt it.”

The relative calm in markets follows last week’s $20 billion liquidation flush and Binance collateral adjustments, setting the stage for macro traders to focus on CPI outcomes. The market’s next directional move will hinge on whether Friday’s inflation data sustains the “soft landing” narrative or reignites volatility.

Market Snapshot

• BTC: Consolidating above $108K, with analysts noting a dip below $100K could present a “last chance to buy” before the next leg higher.
• ETH: Trading near $3,800 on 33% higher volume as traders accumulate ahead of CPI; however, a $650M transfer by the Ethereum Foundation triggered $700M in profit-taking, leaving analysts divided between a breakout toward $5,000 or a slide toward $2,850 if support at $3,470 fails.
• Gold: Futures down 0.3% to $4,097.80/oz after Tuesday’s 5.7% plunge, though strong central-bank buying and rate-cut expectations provide support.
• Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.5%, driven by reports that the Trump administration may restrict exports to China, reigniting trade tensions.