Asia Morning Briefing – 16/10/2025: QCP Says Global Liquidity, Not Fed Cuts, Is Driving Markets

QCP Capital’s latest research note highlights a market transition: investors are moving away from rate sensitivity toward liquidity-driven dynamics, where central bank balance sheets and cross-border capital flows now influence risk more than the Fed’s next 25 basis points.

“Central bank purchases, de-dollarization flows, and institutional portfolio hedging are now the dominant forces pushing gold higher, extending its relevance beyond traditional inflation-hedge narratives,” QCP noted. The firm highlighted that Bitcoin–gold correlation surged above 0.85 during last weekend’s volatility, signaling synchronized capital flows across both asset classes.

Prediction markets suggest a gradual Fed easing cycle favoring gold and digital assets over high-beta risk. On Kalshi, traders currently assign a 76% probability of exactly three rate cuts in 2025, totaling 75 bps, consistent with JP Morgan’s baseline for a “mid-cycle, non-recessionary” scenario. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman reinforced this outlook this week, calling for two additional cuts by year-end.

Bitcoin is trading within this liquidity-driven environment. Kalshi markets price a 51% chance of BTC reaching $130,000 in 2025, 33% for $140,000, and 21% for $150,000, with even odds of touching $150,000 by mid-2026. Market positioning suggests a slow-burn rally, rather than a speculative surge, as easing expectations gradually impact real yields and dollar liquidity. Glassnode data shows a concentration of call positions at $130,000, implying options flows may amplify short-term moves while anchoring resistance near that level.

The macro and on-chain signals point to a liquidity-fed advance, rather than an adrenaline-driven bull run—though the market remains sensitive to unpredictable catalysts, including headlines from platforms like Truth Social.

Market Movements

• BTC: Trading above $110,500, down 2%, pressured by renewed U.S.–China trade tensions. Analysts warn that a breach of $110,000 support could open the door to a slide toward $96,500–$100,000.
• ETH: Ethereum is around $3,900, down 4%, as investors reduce exposure amid macro uncertainty and crypto sell-off concerns. Optimists note ETH may eventually catch up to gold in performance.
• Gold: Trading near $4,141.81/oz as safe-haven demand rises amid U.S.–China flare-ups and expectations for Fed rate cuts.
• Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets climbed Thursday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.95%, following Wall Street gains fueled by strong bank earnings.