The CME has lost its position as the top exchange for bitcoin (BTC $87,886.25) futures open interest (OI), with Binance now taking the lead, according to CoinGlass data. Binance holds roughly 125,000 BTC ($11.2 billion in notional value), edging out CME’s 123,000 BTC ($11 billion).

The shift is largely driven by a sharp decline in the profitability of the basis trade, where traders buy spot bitcoin while simultaneously selling futures to capture the price premium between the two markets. CME’s OI began the year at 175,000 BTC but has steadily fallen as the basis trade became less lucrative. By contrast, Binance’s OI has remained steady, benefiting from retail traders favoring directional bets on bitcoin.

Just over a year ago, CME’s OI hit a record 200,000 BTC as bitcoin surged toward $100,000 following former President Trump’s election victory, with the annualized basis rate peaking around 15%. Today, that rate has compressed to roughly 5%, according to Velo data, reflecting dwindling returns for institutional basis traders.

As spot and futures prices converge and market efficiency improves, arbitrage opportunities continue to shrink. CME had dominated bitcoin futures OI since November 2023, fueled by institutional positioning ahead of the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. That advantage, for now, appears to have faded.