Bitcoin Eyes Fed Rate Cut as Price Clears 50-Day Average but Faces Key Resistance

Bitcoin (BTC) rose above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), signaling renewed short-term bullish momentum as traders positioned ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve rate decision. The cryptocurrency last traded near $115,036, extending its rebound from last week’s lows.

The move above the 50-day SMA is supported by multiple technical signals. The daily MACD histogram has turned positive with a fresh bullish crossover, while the 5- and 10-day SMAs have also crossed upward — both signs of strengthening near-term momentum.

Market sentiment has been buoyed by growing expectations of a Fed rate cut on Wednesday and tentative progress in U.S.–China trade negotiations, both of which have encouraged risk-on positioning across assets.

Still, traders remain cautious. The CoinDesk Bitcoin Trend Indicator (BTI) continues to show a bearish reading, suggesting the broader downtrend has not yet reversed. On the daily chart, BTC also remains below the Ichimoku cloud, a major resistance zone that has capped recent rallies.

A confirmed breakout above that cloud could signal a shift in market structure, opening the door for an extended rally toward the $120,000 region and potentially higher. Until then, analysts say, bitcoin’s recovery should be viewed as constructive but unconfirmed.