Bitcoin’s drop into Friday’s quarterly options expiry has again cast doubt on the “max pain theory,” as prices remain well below the widely tracked $72,000 level.

The move to around $61,700 comes ahead of roughly $10 billion in options set to expire on Deribit at 8:00 ET Friday, reigniting debate over whether spot prices tend to drift toward max pain levels into settlement.

Max pain refers to the strike price where options buyers—holders of calls and puts—lose the most at expiry, while options sellers benefit the most.

The theory argues that option writers may have an incentive to push prices toward that level ahead of expiry, creating a “pinning” effect around max pain. It gained popularity after BTC often appeared to move toward those levels during several 2020–2021 expiries.

This week’s decline from about $67,000 to below $60,000, however, has moved prices further away from the $72,000 max pain point, weakening that narrative.

The move also aligns with skepticism from veterans such as Tony Stewart of Pelion Capital, who has long questioned the strength of max pain dynamics in crypto markets.

Recent expiries have similarly shown little evidence of strong or consistent price pinning, further undermining the theory.

“Friday’s expiry is something to watch with $10.2 billion rolling off Deribit and max pain at $72,000, well above spot,” said Wintermute OTC trader Jasper De Maere. “Despite the narrative, recent expiries haven’t mechanically pinned prices the way people expect.”

Still, the expiry remains a major market event, with Deribit describing it as one of the largest liquidity rollovers of the year, often contributing to elevated volatility as positions are unwound or rolled forward.