Bitcoin May Break Seasonal Norms as Market Drivers Align for Summer Rally

The old Wall Street saying “sell in May and go away” may not hold for bitcoin this year, as several key factors are lining up to push the leading cryptocurrency to new heights over the summer.

Paul Howard, director at crypto trading firm Wincent, shared in a market briefing that instead of a typical summer slowdown, the trend might flip to a “buy in May and go away” scenario. This optimism is fueled by favorable regulatory momentum in the U.S., alongside steady institutional inflows via exchange-traded funds and spot purchases.

Monday’s data showed U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs attracting $667 million in net inflows, highlighting persistent demand. In May alone, inflows into these ETFs reached $3.3 billion, according to SoSoValue. Corporations are also ramping up their bitcoin treasuries, following in the footsteps of Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR), often using stock offerings and debt to fund their crypto accumulation.

Howard noted, “As the digital assets market cap approaches $4 trillion, bitcoin is on track to surpass its all-time highs within weeks.” The overall crypto market cap currently sits near $3.3 trillion, according to TradingView.

Although summer months have historically been slower for crypto trading, macroeconomic and geopolitical factors could disrupt the usual pattern this year. Analysts from Kaiko point to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision in June and former President Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline as potential catalysts for increased volatility.

Bitcoin options markets reflect this anticipation, with heavy trading at strike prices of $110,000 and $120,000 for June 27 expiry dates, suggesting investors are betting on a record-breaking surge.

Bitcoin briefly topped $107,000 in Tuesday’s session, climbing 1.2% over 24 hours and holding just 2% shy of its January all-time high.