Bitcoin Eyes $200K as Cooling Inflation Sparks Bullish Momentum, Says 21Shares Strategist

A cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation print on Wednesday has renewed optimism for a significant bitcoin rally, with price targets now reaching as high as $200,000 by year-end, according to Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed inflation rising just 0.1% in May, under the 0.2% forecast by economists polled by Reuters. The softer reading helped ease fears of inflationary pressure tied to recent tariffs, giving financial markets a fresh boost.

“This CPI report may be the bullish trigger Bitcoin needed,” Mena said in an email to CoinDesk. “If BTC convincingly breaks through the $105K–$110K range, we could quickly climb to $120K — and even hit our summer target of $138.5K ahead of schedule.”

BTC was trading at $108,440 at the time of writing, up from earlier levels following the inflation report.

With inflation showing signs of cooling, Mena believes the environment is becoming increasingly favorable for digital assets. “A $200K Bitcoin by year-end is now firmly on the table,” he said, pointing to rising momentum across macro and crypto-native indicators.

The CPI report also indicated that durable goods prices — many of which are sensitive to trade policy and tariffs — declined 0.1% month-over-month, suggesting that the recent tariff increases have yet to significantly affect consumer prices. On an annualized basis, durable goods prices are down 1.3%.

Core CPI remained steady at 2.8% year-over-year, while the headline annual CPI edged up 2.4%, reinforcing a broader trend of disinflation that market participants hope will nudge the Federal Reserve toward rate cuts.

Market expectations for rate cuts strengthened after the report. Traders now see 47 basis points of easing by year-end — nearly two 25 basis point cuts — up from 42 basis points earlier this week. A rate cut in September is now seen as more than 70% likely, with October fully priced in.

Mena argues that the favorable CPI backdrop adds to other bullish factors, including growing institutional interest, sovereign-level adoption, and pending regulation around stablecoins.

“As macro clarity improves, we expect an acceleration in Bitcoin flows,” he said. “From ETF inflows to strategic reserves and treasury adoption, all the signals point to Bitcoin gaining a more prominent role in global portfolios. This is the kind of environment Bitcoin was designed for.”

21Shares, one of the earliest and largest issuers of crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs), has been tracking Bitcoin’s structural growth and considers this confluence of factors a strong setup for an extended rally.