Crypto Eyes September CPI as Ether Could See Larger Swings Than Bitcoin

The crypto market is bracing for September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Friday, a key economic data point delayed by the prolonged U.S. government shutdown. According to FactSet, the CPI is expected to show a 3.1% year-over-year increase, the highest in 18 months, up from August’s 2.9%. On a monthly basis, inflation is forecast to rise 0.4%, matching the previous month.

Core Inflation Outlook

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is projected to climb 3.1% YoY for the third consecutive month, with a monthly gain of 0.3%. Economists widely expect the data to have little impact on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming 25 basis point rate cut, though a hotter-than-expected print could strengthen the dollar and temper crypto gains.

Analysts at ING noted:
“With 50bp of easing fully priced in by year-end, any hotter CPI reading could support the dollar, limiting upside for crypto.”

Conversely, a softer CPI could fuel a risk-on reaction, according to Zerocap. John Toro, head of trading at the firm, said:
“A lower CPI could easily stoke bullish sentiment amid ongoing retail selloffs, especially after the recent macro data drought caused by the government shutdown.”

Expected Crypto Volatility

Options markets suggest ether may experience larger moves than bitcoin following the CPI release. Deribit data indicate a ±2.9% move for ETH, compared to ±1.4% for BTC. Volmex Finance’s one-day implied volatility indices point to expected 24-hour price moves of roughly 4.7% for XRP and 4% for Solana.

While these projections highlight potential swings, they reflect direction-agnostic volatility, not necessarily bullish or bearish trends.

Technical Signals

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, noted that Bitcoin’s daily stochastic indicator shows early signs of bullish divergence:
“Downside momentum appears to be easing, which could pave the way for a short-term recovery in BTC prices.”

Traders will be watching closely as the CPI release may spark volatility across crypto markets, with ether and other high-beta tokens likely to react more sharply than Bitcoin.