Bitcoin drifts as on-chain data signals fading demand

On-chain metrics point to weakening demand and tighter liquidity, while prediction markets show little expectation of near-term Fed rate cuts.

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Bitcoin opened the Asian session with bear-market signals, hovering in the mid-$70,000s as global equities search for direction.

CryptoQuant’s latest report frames the weakness as structural rather than cyclical. Its Bull Score Index sits at zero, and Bitcoin trades well below its October peak. The market is operating with a thinner buyer base and tighter liquidity.

Glassnode data shows weak spot volumes and a demand vacuum: selling pressure isn’t being absorbed, indicating participation is fading rather than panic driving moves.

Institutional flows reinforce the trend. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, net buyers a year ago, are now net sellers, creating a year-over-year demand gap of tens of thousands of BTC. The Coinbase premium has stayed negative since October, signaling subdued U.S. investor activity. Historically, strong U.S. spot demand has fueled bull runs—currently, that engine is idle.

Liquidity is also tightening. Stablecoin growth, typically a driver of risk appetite, has stalled, with USDT market cap growth turning negative for the first time since 2023. Longer-term demand growth has also collapsed, suggesting fading participation rather than just leverage. Bitcoin remains below its 365-day moving average, with major support clustered between $60,000 and $70,000.

On the macro side, Bitcoin is trading increasingly like high-beta software rather than digital gold. Prediction markets see the Fed holding rates in April, with modest bets for a June cut, limiting prospects for near-term liquidity relief.

Political developments add complexity. President Trump recently said a Fed chair seeking rate hikes “would not have gotten the job,” tempering optimism about central bank independence.

In Asia, the market is defined less by shocks than absence, where bounces remain possible but conviction is thin.

Market Moves

• BTC: Drifted to the mid-$70,000s, with rebounds fading amid thin spot demand and pressured tech stocks.
• ETH: Hovered above the low $2,000s, struggling for momentum as risk sentiment softened.
• Gold: Rebounded toward $5,000–$5,100 on safe-haven buying amid U.S.–Iran tensions and softer payroll data, as traders reassessed Fed expectations.
• Nikkei 225: Fell about 0.3%, with chip and tech leaders tracking Wall Street, though broader Japanese equities held up relatively well versus regional peers.