Bitcoin is trading in a tight, uneven range near $66,600 as the holiday weekend dampens activity, leaving the market thinner and more vulnerable to downside pressure.

With Good Friday halting CME futures trading and pausing ETF flows, bitcoin is heading into a temporary liquidity gap just as one of its primary sources of demand is already weakening.

The $65,000 level is increasingly coming into focus as a fragile support zone. CryptoQuant data shows 30-day apparent demand at roughly -63,000 BTC, underscoring persistent net selling despite a pickup in institutional buying. Market maker Enflux noted that current price support is “partly underwritten by expectations of rate cuts,” highlighting the market’s reliance on macro conditions.

Over the past month, ETFs have accumulated करीब 50,000 BTC—the strongest pace since October 2025—while Strategy added roughly 44,000 BTC. Even so, those inflows have not been enough to offset broader distribution across the market.

That distribution is most visible among large holders. Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have shifted into net selling, with their one-year balance change dropping to about -188,000 BTC from a peak of +200,000 BTC during the 2024 cycle. Mid-sized holders have also slowed accumulation, and the Coinbase Premium remains negative, pointing to subdued demand from U.S. spot investors.

As a result, rising institutional participation has not translated into stronger price support. With more capital flowing through ETFs and regulated futures, bitcoin is increasingly driven by macro-sensitive positioning—such as hedging and portfolio rebalancing—rather than broad-based spot demand.

This dependence on macro factors is now being tested by inflation signals. Enflux highlighted the ISM prices-paid index, which climbed to 78.3 in March, its highest level since mid-2022, casting doubt on the timing of potential rate cuts. That shift is already evident in flows, with $296 million in net ETF outflows during the week of March 24 and relatively muted inflows so far in April.

The holiday period removes an important stabilizing force. With CME closed and ETF creation and redemption paused, the institutional bid that has increasingly supported bitcoin’s price will largely step away, leaving the market to spot trading where selling pressure has been more persistent.

CryptoQuant estimates that any relief rally could struggle near the $71,500 to $81,200 range—levels that have capped previous rebounds within the current bearish structure.

Looking ahead, attention will turn to U.S. inflation data due April 9. If core PCE for March comes in above February’s 3.1%, expectations for rate cuts could weaken further, adding to downside risks for bitcoin.