Dogecoin (DOGE) topped losses among major cryptocurrencies, sliding 4.5% over the past 24 hours ahead of the U.S. Labor Day holiday.

Bitcoin (BTC) enters September trading near $107,000, but historical trends suggest a challenging month ahead. Over the past 12 years, September has been Bitcoin’s weakest month on average, with a median decline of roughly 5% and an average loss of around 6%.

Concerns are mounting as MicroStrategy’s premium over Bitcoin wanes, coinciding with the seasonal weakness. Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, notes that the trend reflects growing investor skepticism over corporate treasury strategies heavily weighted in crypto.

“MicroStrategy’s struggle to maintain its Bitcoin premium reflects a broader market shift, with investors questioning the sustainability of treasury models focused solely on crypto accumulation. This dynamic could be exacerbated by September’s historically bearish trend for crypto assets,” Ruck said.
“The cooling appetite underscores a maturing market, where structural vulnerabilities and competition are prompting a reevaluation of what drives long-term value beyond mere Bitcoin proxies,” he added.

Looking ahead, bets on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in September could ease some seasonal pressure. However, fresh ETF outflows or a renewed equity selloff could reinforce historical patterns, potentially pushing BTC toward the $100,000 support level.

Other major tokens also retreated. Ethereum (ETH) fell 1.7% to $4,390, Solana (SOL) dropped 3.4% to $197.60, XRP slid 4.3% to $2.72, and Dogecoin (DOGE) declined 4.2% to $0.214, reversing last week’s gains.

Since 2013, Bitcoin has closed September in the red eight out of twelve times, including sharp drawdowns like 2014’s 19% and 2019’s 13% declines. Even during bull cycles, rallies have often stalled, with only 2015, 2016, and 2023 showing modest gains of 2–7%.

Traders increasingly view September as a “seasonality trade,” a term describing assets’ recurring and predictable calendar-year patterns. While outcomes may seem random, contributing factors include profit-taking around April–May tax season and the traditionally bullish “Santa Claus” rally in December.

Seasonality is not unique to crypto; equities also often weaken at this time of year. However, Bitcoin’s sharper volatility amplifies the pattern, making September closely watched by traders.