Bitcoin (BTC $88,395.55) is hovering near a critical long-term support level that has held for the past three weeks, keeping bulls on edge. Meanwhile, shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest publicly listed holder of bitcoin, have already fallen below this key “safety net,” signaling potential bearish pressure for the cryptocurrency.

The level in focus is the 100-week simple moving average (SMA), which represents the average price over roughly two years. Widely used by technical analysts, the 100-week SMA helps identify major trend shifts and long-term support or breakdowns.

For bitcoin, this moving average has acted as a stabilizing force, halting the decline from all-time highs above $126,000. Analysts often liken it to a safety net: a bounce from this level could spark hopes of a rebound, giving bulls a psychological and technical boost.

However, a breach of the 100-week SMA could trigger further selling, as frustrated holders exit positions and bears gain confidence, potentially accelerating the decline. MicroStrategy’s share price offers a cautionary example: in November, it fell below this key average, providing a warning for BTC.

The pattern is familiar: MSTR previously led bitcoin when it broke below the 50-week SMA, another widely watched long-term benchmark. The key takeaway for BTC bulls is clear—defending the 100-week SMA is critical. Maintaining this level could pave the way for a bullish rebound, while a breakdown risks deeper losses following MSTR’s trajectory.