Bitcoin’s latest momentum signals hint at potential exhaustion in the current bull market, yet institutional flows show traders are still betting on a powerful year-end rally.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) — a widely used momentum indicator ranging from 0 to 100 — is flashing a bearish divergence on the 14-month timeframe. This pattern, where prices hit fresh highs while RSI prints lower highs, suggests weakening market strength and raises the risk of an impending trend reversal.

On the monthly chart, Bitcoin recently surpassed its December peak during the July–August run. However, the RSI failed to confirm the move, instead rolling over into a lower high. The signal becomes more concerning as BTC faces resistance at a long-term trendline connecting prior cycle tops from December 2017 and November 2021.

While this technical setup urges caution, options activity points in the opposite direction. Traders continue to accumulate bullish positions in anticipation of further gains into year-end.

“Blocks suggest traders are gearing up for further upside, with notable activity in December BTC call spreads ($125K/$160K). Ethereum saw interest in $4,800 strikes for September, while front-end pressure was also evident,” said Jake Ostrovskis, OTC trader at Wintermute, in a Thursday email.

Block flows — large over-the-counter transactions negotiated privately between institutions or high-net-worth participants — highlight conviction for a rally into late 2025. The December BTC call spread cited by Ostrovskis effectively wagers on prices reaching $160,000 and potentially higher, with some desks eyeing levels near $190,000.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $110,500, down 4.6% for August, according to CoinDesk data.