Bitcoin Faces Modest Holiday Performance Amid Ongoing Drawdown

Bitcoin BTC enters the Thanksgiving period following a 35% correction from its October all-time high, marking its fifth consecutive down week. Historically, the session before Thanksgiving tends to be weak, with six of the past seven pre-holiday trading days finishing lower. In 2020 and 2021, Bitcoin declined roughly 8% ahead of the holiday, likely reflecting reduced liquidity and limited hedging activity.

Thanksgiving itself has typically been a flat trading day. Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged a 1.5% gain on Thanksgiving, posting negative returns only four times. The day after the holiday is generally stronger, averaging more than 2.3% gains. On a weekly basis, Thanksgiving usually falls in week 47, which historically has returned around 3%, though late-week 46 has been stronger, averaging over 6%.

Seasonally, the fourth quarter is Bitcoin’s most bullish period, with average gains near 77%. This year, however, Q4 is down 23%, with November alone falling over 20%, the worst monthly performance since June 2022. Bitcoin remains in a seven-week decline from its October high of $126,000, and week 47 performance is slightly negative. Short-term volatility could be further amplified by upcoming options expiry.

Bitcoin appears on track to finish 2025 Thanksgiving below the 2024 level of $95,380, a scenario that has occurred in 2015, 2018, and 2022. What sets this year apart is the growing influence of institutional investors via spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate Bitcoin treasuries. This shift has pushed retail traders to the sidelines, leaving them vulnerable to liquidation.

October saw record crypto liquidations exceeding $19 billion on retail-favored venues, highlighting the risks for individual traders. Today, liquidity on crypto exchanges remains relatively thin, as institutional participants favor regulated markets, leaving retail investors to navigate a fundamentally transformed market.