Oil Retreats After Iran Threats Fall Flat; Bitcoin Holds Support Near $100K

Market fears of a dramatic oil surge following U.S. strikes on Iran have quickly faded, with crude prices retreating and bitcoin stabilizing above key technical levels.

Just a day ago, financial headlines and social media were dominated by concerns that a U.S. airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities—and Tehran’s accompanying threat to close the Strait of Hormuz—would ignite a spike in oil prices and trigger a broad risk-off across equities and crypto.

But the outcome has been more subdued.

Oil Fizzles After Initial Spike

Crude oil prices briefly gapped higher by about 3% but have since erased much of those gains. As of this writing, Brent crude is trading at $77 per barrel, up just 1.4% on the day after hitting a five-month high of $77.79. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $78.58 before retreating to $76.75, according to TradingView data.

The muted response suggests that markets view Iran’s threat to block the Strait of Hormuz—a vital artery for global oil flows—as more bark than bite. The Strait handles over 80% of oil exports bound for Asia, including China, and any disruption could damage Iran’s relationships with key allies.

“Price action this morning suggests that the market doesn’t believe (at least not yet) that flows through Hormuz will be blocked,” analysts at ING wrote in a client note Monday. “With over 80% of oil from Hormuz destined for Asia, Iran would risk alienating China and other allies by following through on such a move.”

Expert: Strait Threat Is Political Theater

Energy analyst Anas Alhajji echoed that view, calling Iran’s warning a well-worn tactic used repeatedly since the 1980s. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Alhajji noted that closing the Strait would require Iran to seize Omani waters—an act that could trigger a regional war through the Gulf Cooperation Council’s defense pact.

He added that such a move would likely harm Iran’s allies more than its adversaries, many of whom do not rely on Iranian oil and can access alternative pipelines.

Crypto Finds Its Footing

Bitcoin (BTC), which dropped below $98,000 on Sunday amid oil spike fears, has since rebounded above $101,000. The dip briefly pushed short-term BTC puts on Deribit to an 8–10% volatility premium over calls—a signal of investor concern—but sentiment has since improved.

BTC’s chart shows strong horizontal support at $100,430 held firm over the weekend. A similar bounce from that level occurred on June 5, leading to a swift rally to $110,000 in the days that followed.

If oil prices remain stable, bitcoin and other risk assets may avoid the stagflation shock that many feared—a scenario where surging oil prices and slowing growth combine to sink markets.

However, analysts warn that if BTC breaks below support, attention will shift to the $95,900 zone, where the 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages converge.