Bitcoin’s ongoing stretch of sideways trading is increasingly being compared to the consolidation phase earlier in 2025 that ultimately preceded its run to record highs above $126,000.

BTC has spent weeks moving back and forth within a tight range, closely echoing the choppy price action seen at the start of last year. Since Nov. 21, bitcoin has traded between roughly $80,000 and $95,000, nearing its 50th consecutive day contained within this nearly 20% band. That timeframe closely matches the late-February to early-April 2025 consolidation, when prices fluctuated between $76,000 and $85,000.

That earlier period of consolidation lasted 52 days before breaking higher, eventually carrying bitcoin to a peak above $126,000 in October. Traders often refer to such prolonged, uneventful price behavior as “time-based capitulation,” a process in which impatience and boredom prompt weaker holders to exit the market.

As bitcoin has matured, time-based capitulations have become more common, replacing the deep, rapid drawdowns seen in earlier market cycles. The broader uptrend that began in 2023 has taken on a stair-step pattern, characterized by strong rallies, orderly pullbacks and extended periods of consolidation that set the stage for the next advance.

Looking ahead, the macroeconomic backdrop could again prove supportive. In traditional markets, the economic re-acceleration trade has gained momentum, bolstered by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which currently estimates real GDP growth of 5.4% in the fourth quarter. While the Federal Reserve may remain on hold in the near term, markets continue to expect around 50 basis points of interest-rate cuts in 2026.

Liquidity expectations have also been reinforced by political developments. President Donald Trump said Thursday that he is urging the purchase of up to $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, strengthening expectations for ongoing policy support. Former Pimco CEO Mohamed El-Erian said political pressure on the Federal Reserve could extend beyond rate cuts to include targeted asset purchases aimed at easing housing affordability concerns.

Trump’s remarks, El-Erian added, underscore growing public anxiety around affordability, a dynamic that could eventually prompt a more aggressive policy response.

Taken together, the similarities in price structure and a potentially favorable macro environment suggest bitcoin’s current consolidation could once again resolve to the upside, mirroring the breakout that followed a similar range in April last year.