Bitcoin Likely Hit Its September Low Early, Historical Patterns Suggest

Historical trends indicate that Bitcoin (BTC) may have already put in its low for September 2025, around $107,000 on the first of the month.

Looking back to July 2024, a clear pattern emerges: Bitcoin often forms monthly lows within the first 10 days of the month. Exceptions in February, June, and August 2025 saw lows arrive later, but even then, early-month corrections preceded the broader trend.

Analysts speculate that early-month lows could be linked to institutional portfolio rebalancing or the clustering of key macroeconomic events early in the month. “Several futures and options markets expire at month-end or on the first day of the next month, which can trigger short-term volatility followed by a lull as traders rollover or reposition trades,” said Oliver Knight, deputy managing editor for data and tokens at CoinDesk.

While past performance does not guarantee future results, history shows that Q4 is Bitcoin’s strongest quarter, delivering an average return of 85%. October in particular has been highly favorable, with only two losing months since 2013, highlighting the potential for momentum as the year closes.