Bitcoin Still on Track for $140K by Year-End, But 2026 Could Bring a Bear Market, Says Elliott Wave Strategist

Bitcoin may be heading for a fresh all-time high near $140,000 before year-end, but the rally could be followed by a significant downturn in 2026, according to Elliott Wave expert John Glover.

Speaking to CoinDesk, Glover — Chief Investment Officer at crypto financial services firm Ledn — said the current pullback is a routine retracement within a broader bullish trend. “We’re still on track to hit $135,000–$140,000 by the end of 2025,” Glover said in an email, referencing the latest wave structure mapped by Elliott Wave theory.

Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has declined 4% over the past week, dipping below $112,000 over the weekend amid profit-taking and a broader slump in crypto-linked equities like MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Coinbase (COIN). But Glover views the move as a necessary breather in a larger five-wave advance.

The Elliott Wave Context

Elliott Wave theory, developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1938, proposes that markets move in predictable, fractal-like cycles driven by investor psychology. A typical Elliott Wave cycle includes five waves in the direction of the trend — three impulse waves (1, 3, and 5) and two corrective waves (2 and 4) — followed by a three-wave correction (A-B-C).

According to Glover’s analysis, bitcoin is currently progressing through the third impulse wave (wave iii) of the final larger wave 5, suggesting more upside ahead.

He expects BTC to peak around $130,000 in the coming weeks before a pullback to $110,000 in September. From there, the final leg — wave v — would lift bitcoin toward the projected $140,000 top.

Looking Ahead to 2026

While some market participants anticipate that growing institutional exposure through spot bitcoin ETFs could disrupt BTC’s historical four-year cycle, Glover remains cautious beyond the current rally.

“Once we reach the $140,000 region, there will be talk of $250,000 or even $500,000. But I believe we’ll see a return to bearish conditions in 2026,” he said.

That outlook diverges from more optimistic forecasts tied to continued institutional inflows, which some argue have made the traditional halving-cycle less relevant. Glover, however, sees the current wave structure playing out in line with past market cycles — with a peak in 2025 and a correction to follow.