Asia Morning Briefing | 22 September 2025

Markets face heightened volatility this week ahead of key Federal Reserve speeches and the U.S. core PCE inflation report.

Dollar Index (DXY) Signals Potential Rebound
Last week, the Fed delivered its first interest rate cut since December and signaled further easing in the months ahead. Despite the dovish move, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) closed the week with a dragonfly doji on the weekly chart—a classic bullish reversal pattern suggesting a potential USD rally.

The dragonfly doji forms when the open, high, and close prices are nearly identical, with a long lower shadow reflecting a sharp sell-off quickly absorbed by buyers. Following the rate cut, the DXY briefly dipped below July’s low of 96.37 but bounced back to finish the week around 97.65, supported by resilient U.S. Treasury yields. The pattern’s appearance after a downtrend at critical support signals an imminent bullish shift for the dollar.

Stronger dollar trends generally pressure dollar-denominated and broader risk assets, setting an intriguing stage for the week ahead.

Bitcoin Faces Key Resistance
Bitcoin (BTC) mirrored this indecision last week, forming a Doji candle at the critical resistance defined by trendlines from the 2017 and 2021 bull market peaks. This suggests hesitation among bulls and renewed selling pressure at this long-term hurdle.

Daily charts show BTC flirting with a move below the Ichimoku cloud, having breached the trendline from Sept. 1 lows, signaling potential downside. Initial support lies at the 50-day simple moving average near $114,473, followed by Sept. 1 lows at $107,300. A break above last week’s high of $118,000 would be needed to weaken the bearish case.

Ether Eyes Key Support Levels
Ether (ETH) is also under technical pressure, trading below the lower boundary of a contracting triangle on the daily chart, pointing to renewed seller dominance. The focus now shifts to the Aug. 20 low of $4,062 and the psychological support at $4,000. Bulls must reclaim the 24-hour high of $4,458 to regain momentum.

XRP MACD Turns Bearish Despite ETF Launch
XRP presents a frustrating scenario for bulls. Despite the recent U.S. XRP ETF debut, the weekly MACD has flipped bearish, signaling renewed downside bias. Price action suggests a retreat toward the upper boundary of a descending triangle on the daily chart. Last week’s tentative breakout failed to trigger a sustained rally, keeping traders cautious.

Fed Speeches and PCE Data in Focus
This week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and nine other officials are scheduled to speak. Investors will closely watch for cues on the interest rate trajectory. While last week’s rate cut signaled easing ahead, Powell emphasized a data-dependent approach, tempering expectations.

Other Fed voices, including Stephen Miran—a Trump appointee who dissented in favor of a larger 50-basis-point cut—are also set to speak, potentially adding market uncertainty.

Friday brings the U.S. core PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Analysts expect a 2.7% year-on-year increase, with core PCE rising 2.9% in August, marking a slight uptick from the previous month. These readings will be closely scrutinized for their implications on future rate policy.