Bitcoin’s slide through the fourth quarter is shaping up as one of its weakest year-end performances outside of major bear markets, underscoring the fragile state of the broader crypto market despite a modest rebound.

Data from CoinGlass shows bitcoin is down more than 22% so far in Q4, a rare and notable decline for a period that has historically delivered some of the asset’s strongest rallies. The recent move back toward the $90,000 area has provided a short-term lift to sentiment, but analysts remain unconvinced that it marks a durable turning point after one of the weakest second halves in recent years.

Major tokens have traded largely range-bound over the past 24 hours. XRP, ether, Solana’s SOL, Cardano’s ADA and Dogecoin posted gains of up to 2%, while Aave’s AAVE continued to slide amid an ongoing governance dispute, making it the worst-performing large-cap token with a 7% drop.

Total crypto market capitalization has climbed back above $3 trillion, a psychologically important level that has acted as a battleground between buyers and sellers over the past month. While prices are higher on the day, analysts warn the move appears driven more by market exhaustion than renewed conviction.

Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said the recent strength is largely technical, reflecting a bounce from depressed levels after weeks of sustained selling.

“The crypto market is making another attempt at growth, but this is not yet a recovery,” Kuptsikevich said. He noted that sentiment has improved only marginally, with the fear and greed index rising to 25 — a sign traders may be stepping back from extreme pessimism, but are still reluctant to take on risk.

Bitcoin was trading near $88,000 during Asian morning hours on Tuesday, pressing against the upper end of a range that has held since early last week. Kuptsikevich cautioned that short-term momentum could prove misleading given the broader backdrop. Bitcoin remains roughly 30% below its 2025 peak and is still trading below where it began the year.

“Attempts to bring year-to-date performance back to zero offer little comfort,” he said, adding that disappointment has replaced the optimism that dominated markets earlier in 2025.

Seasonal trends add to the caution. While the fourth quarter has often delivered strong bitcoin rallies, it has also produced sharp drawdowns in periods marked by tightening liquidity and macroeconomic uncertainty. Current conditions suggest the market remains vulnerable to abrupt reversals, particularly during U.S. trading hours, where recent sessions have seen gains from Asia and Europe fade once North American markets open.