Bitcoin CPI Reaction: Lower Inflation Could Help BTC Rebound From Two-Month Lows

The U.S. October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, November 10. Economists expect core inflation to increase by 0.22% month over month, potentially marking a slowdown from September. Historical data suggests that softer readings could support Bitcoin, which has posted first-hour gains in 10 of the 13 CPI releases where core inflation came in at 0.2% or less.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the figures at 13:30 UTC. Investors are closely monitoring the announcement as it could influence cryptocurrency market sentiment and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, is forecast to rise 0.22% in October, down from the 0.33% increase recorded in September.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading around $74,400 after approaching $73,510 on Sunday, its lowest price in two months. The upcoming inflation data could provide a catalyst for a recovery or deepen the current bearish trend.

Previous CPI announcements have frequently generated significant volatility in the cryptocurrency market. An assessment of Bitcoin’s first-hour performance across the latest 24 releases shows that BTC advanced in 10 out of 13 instances when core inflation was 0.2% or lower. When the reading reached 0.3% or higher, however, Bitcoin gained in just four of 10 cases.

This historical pattern makes Tuesday’s report particularly important for traders looking for signs of a potential market reversal.

Wall Street Expects Core Inflation to Ease in October

Economists generally anticipate a slower pace of inflation, although their individual estimates vary. A Wall Street Journal survey of 17 financial institutions and research organizations places the median forecast for headline CPI at 0.25% and core CPI at 0.22%. WSJ reporter Nick Timiraos also posted the projections on X.

The survey highlights the following estimates:

Headline CPI: Forecasts range from 0.14% at Nomura to 0.29% at Pinebrook Capital, compared with September’s 0.65% increase.
Core CPI: Estimates range from 0.13% at Nomura to 0.28% at BNP Paribas and Pinebrook Capital, against September’s 0.33% reading.
Annual inflation: The September report showed headline CPI at 3.7% and core inflation at 2.6%.

The differences between individual forecasts leave room for an unexpected market reaction. Since the BLS rounds monthly CPI figures to one decimal place, the final core inflation number could be reported anywhere between 0.1% and 0.3%.

A reading of 0.3% would indicate that inflation has maintained roughly the same monthly pace as September, potentially disappointing investors anticipating a clearer decline in price pressures.

The annual comparison also presents an unusual challenge. The U.S. government shutdown in October 2025 disrupted the BLS reporting schedule, preventing the agency from publishing that month’s CPI figures.

December Fed Rate Expectations Put Additional Focus on CPI

Tuesday’s inflation release is the final CPI report scheduled before the Federal Reserve’s December 8–9 meeting. Consequently, investors may use the latest figures to reassess the possibility of another interest-rate increase.

Polymarket data showed an 86.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike as of Tuesday morning, while the odds of no change stood at 11.5%.

The prospect of higher interest rates generally creates pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets. Rising yields can make traditional investments more appealing, reducing the relative attractiveness of cryptocurrencies that do not provide conventional interest payments.

A weaker inflation reading could ease concerns about persistent price increases and potentially reduce expectations for another rate hike. This may improve market sentiment and encourage investors to return to Bitcoin.

Conversely, an upside surprise in CPI could strengthen expectations for tighter monetary policy, increasing the possibility of further declines across the crypto market.

Bitcoin CPI History Shows How Inflation Data Influences Hourly Returns

An examination of Binance price data following 24 CPI announcements since October 2024 provides insight into Bitcoin’s immediate response to inflation releases.

The analysis measures BTC’s performance during the first 60 minutes after the scheduled 8:30 a.m. ET announcement. It identifies a significant difference between softer and stronger core inflation readings.

Key findings include:

CPI-related volatility: Bitcoin’s median hourly high-to-low range reached 1.17% following inflation announcements, nearly double the 0.62% observed during the equivalent hour on other weekdays.
Core CPI at 0.2% or below: Bitcoin finished higher in 10 of 13 releases, producing an average first-hour return of 0.45%.
Core CPI at 0.3% or above: BTC recorded gains in only four of 10 instances, with the group producing an average hourly loss of 0.11%.

The results suggest that softer inflation has historically been associated with a more favorable immediate reaction from Bitcoin traders. However, the relationship should not be treated as a guaranteed trading signal, as other economic and market developments can influence prices.

The largest hourly decline in the sample occurred on February 12, 2025. Core CPI increased by 0.4%, coinciding with a 1.9% Bitcoin decline during the first hour. A 0.3% reading in the previous month was accompanied by a 1.4% drop.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Faces Resistance as $73,510 Support Comes Into Focus

Bitcoin continues to trade above Sunday’s low, but its technical structure remains weak. The cryptocurrency was recently priced near $74,398 on Binance, approximately 1.2% above the $73,510 level reached during the weekend selloff.

On the daily chart, BTC remains below its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). This positioning suggests that buyers have yet to establish sufficient momentum for a sustained recovery.

Resistance levels:

$75,599: Monday’s trading high and the first significant upside hurdle.
$76,481: The 200-day EMA, which could restrict further gains.
$79,128: The 50-day EMA and a major resistance level for a potential trend reversal.

Support levels:

$74,177: Tuesday’s session low.
$73,510: Sunday’s two-month low and the nearest major support.
$73,027: The August 21 low, which could become relevant if Bitcoin breaks below its recent bottom.

A favorable CPI outcome could help BTC reclaim nearby resistance levels, beginning with $75,599. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading, however, could push the cryptocurrency toward $73,510 and potentially expose the lower $73,027 level.

The first hour after Tuesday’s 8:30 a.m. ET announcement will therefore be crucial for determining Bitcoin’s immediate direction.

Historical observations offer another important signal: Bitcoin continued moving in the same direction over the next 24 hours in 20 of the 24 CPI releases examined, following its initial hourly reaction.

Although this does not guarantee that the latest pattern will repeat, the early response could provide traders with valuable insight into market positioning and Bitcoin’s near-term price direction.