Bitcoin Rebounds to $106K After Geopolitical Sell-Off, but Analysts Caution More Downside May Come

Bitcoin staged a modest recovery to $106,000 early Friday following a sharp pullback tied to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, though the rebound lost momentum later in the U.S. session as reports emerged of renewed airstrikes. The leading cryptocurrency is currently trading around $105,200, down 1.6% over the past 24 hours, and remains within 6% of its all-time high.

The broader crypto market also attempted a bounce but remains under pressure. The CoinDesk 20 Index, which tracks the top 20 digital assets excluding memecoins, exchange tokens, and stablecoins, slid 4.4% during the same period. Tokens like Ether (ETH), Avalanche (AVAX), and Toncoin (TON) were among the worst performers, declining 6%–8% as risk sentiment deteriorated.

Meanwhile, crypto-adjacent equities painted a mixed picture. Shares of Bitcoin miners like Marathon Digital (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) fell 5% and 4%, respectively, extending recent losses. One bright spot was Circle (CIRCL), the newly public stablecoin issuer, which jumped 13% on reports that Amazon and Walmart are exploring stablecoin integrations. The news sparked speculation that retail giants may soon enter the digital payments space, giving Circle a potential first-mover advantage.

Traditional financial markets were more subdued in their response to geopolitical headlines. Gold rose 1.3%, edging closer to record territory, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dipped a mild 0.4% each.

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Analyst Commentary: Short-Term Uncertainty, Long-Term Setup

Traders remain cautious heading into the weekend. Well-known analyst Skew noted the “nice bounce” in bitcoin so far but pointed out the lack of follow-through, suggesting that sentiment remains fragile. BTC’s correlation with traditional markets amid geopolitical stress could keep price action muted in the short term.

From a longer-term perspective, some analysts see risk of a deeper correction.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, warned that BTC’s drop below $106,000 could be a failed breakout, and recommended waiting for clearer signals before entering new positions. He identified the $100,000–$101,000 zone as key support. A break below that level, he added, could push bitcoin back into a broad consolidation phase—similar to the pattern seen during the summer of 2024.

John Glover, CIO of bitcoin lender Ledn, echoed a more bearish view in the near term. He expects BTC to decline toward the $88,000–$93,000 range as part of a broader correction within an ongoing uptrend. However, he believes this pullback could offer an attractive entry point for investors looking to position for bitcoin’s next leg higher.

“If this pattern plays out,” Glover said, “we expect a move toward the $130,000 level to follow.”