Crypto markets moved higher after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled a five-day pause on strikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure, though traders caution that the rally’s next leg will depend on how tensions between the U.S. and Iran develop.

Bitcoin held above $70,000 following an earlier jump, with its short-term outlook now closely tied to geopolitical headlines. Trump’s reference to “productive” discussions helped lift sentiment across digital assets and broader risk markets.

Although Iranian officials later denied that any talks were taking place, markets largely brushed off the contradiction, keeping crypto prices supported through the session.

Bitcoin was trading just below $71,000, up roughly 3.8% over the past 24 hours. Altcoins led the advance, with ether, solana and dogecoin each rising around 5%.

Crypto-linked stocks also rallied, led by bitcoin miners that have increasingly traded in line with AI infrastructure names. Hut 8 climbed more than 11%, while Bitfarms, Cipher Mining, CleanSpark, Riot Platforms and TeraWulf posted gains of 6% to 7%.

Traditional equities followed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closing about 1.2% higher.

Despite the rebound, caution remains. Jasper de Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute, said the macro backdrop has improved, but the extent of further upside will depend on developments over the coming days.

If oil prices stabilize and shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalize, easing inflation pressures could revive expectations for rate cuts, providing support for crypto. In that scenario, bitcoin could make another attempt at the $74,000–$76,000 range, which has capped recent rallies.

However, a renewed escalation or disruptions to energy supply could send oil higher again, reinforce inflation risks and push markets back into risk-off mode—potentially pulling bitcoin down toward the mid-$60,000s.