Bitcoin and Ether remain stuck in a well-defined range that has held for nearly two months, as elevated oil prices and geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran continue to cap broader market sentiment. In contrast, select altcoin sectors—particularly AI and privacy tokens—are showing pockets of strength.

Bitcoin is trading around $69,000, while Ether holds near $2,130, both confined within a consolidation range established in early February. Since then, Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break above the $72,000–$75,000 resistance zone, while support has consistently emerged between $62,000 and $65,000.

The current range echoes a similar consolidation phase between November and January that ultimately broke lower, raising the possibility of a repeat scenario.

Macro factors remain a key driver. Ongoing tensions involving Iran, combined with firm oil prices—Brent crude hovering near $107 per barrel—continue to cloud the outlook. Sustained strength in energy markets could feed into inflation, adding pressure to risk assets if conditions persist.

Derivatives positioning

Market positioning reflects a wait-and-see environment. Bitcoin open interest is steady at around $16.7 billion, indicating limited expansion in speculative activity.

Funding rates have stabilized in a neutral 0%–6% band after previously turning negative, a shift that likely fueled a short-covering bounce. Meanwhile, the three-month annualized basis has remained flat, pointing to cautious institutional participation and a lack of strong directional bets.

In options markets, sentiment is gradually stabilizing. Call options now account for 47% of activity, while one-week skew has eased to 16% from 19%. However, front-end implied volatility remains in backwardation, suggesting traders are still focused on hedging near-term downside risks.

Liquidation data shows $163 million cleared over the past 24 hours, with a slight tilt toward long liquidations. Bitcoin led with $64 million, followed by Ether at $35 million. Binance heatmaps highlight $69,500 as a key level to watch on any upside move.

Altcoin rotation

While major assets remain range-bound, capital is rotating within the altcoin market. Privacy tokens such as Zcash (ZEC) and Dash (DASH) have posted gains, alongside strength in AI-linked assets and tokens like FET, PUMP, and RENDER.

The broader CoinDesk 20 index edged up 0.3% but trailed the CoinDesk Memecoin Index and the CoinDesk Computing Select Index, underscoring the relative outperformance of niche sectors.

That strength, however, is not broad-based. AI and privacy tokens, along with select names like HYPE and ALGO, have outperformed, while other segments continue to decline. Over the past 90 days, Ethena (ENA) has dropped 66%, with TIA, LDO, SUI, and ARB each losing more than half their value.

This growing divergence marks a departure from earlier cycles, when altcoins tended to move in unison. The current market appears more selective, with performance increasingly driven by sector-specific narratives and real-world utility rather than broad speculative flows.