Bitcoin Faces Seasonal Weakness as Gold and AI Stocks Capture Focus

Bitcoin is experiencing seasonal headwinds in Week 38 of 2025, historically its third-weakest week of the year. Coinglass data shows this period averages a -2.25% return, trailing only Weeks 28 and 14. BTC has dropped nearly 2% this week, trading near $113,000, while September’s options expiry suggests a max pain level around $110,000, indicating potential for further near-term downside.

Market signals point to cooling speculative activity. Perpetual funding rates for bitcoin, reflecting the cost of holding leveraged long positions, have fallen to 4%, among the lowest levels in a month. Implied volatility, a gauge of expected price swings, remains subdued at 37.

Despite the pullback, bitcoin is still up 4% in September and 6% for the quarter. With roughly 14 weeks left in the year — historically positive for BTC — markets may be consolidating before renewed volatility.

Meanwhile, gold continues its strong rally, climbing 1% on Tuesday and posting year-to-date gains exceeding 42%. Gains in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing equities, such as IREN, may be diverting attention and capital away from crypto, weighing on short-term bitcoin sentiment.