Bitcoin Trades Near Production Cost, Aligning With Difficulty Regression Model

Bitcoin is currently tracking closely with the Difficulty Regression Model, according to Checkonchain. This model estimates the all-in sustaining production cost of the network by using mining difficulty as a proxy for the average cost to produce one bitcoin. It incorporates key operational variables into a single figure, eliminating the need for detailed assumptions about hardware, energy expenses, or logistics.

The model currently sits near $92,300, roughly in line with Bitcoin’s spot price. The price briefly dipped to around $80,000, slightly below the model, before recovering back to its valuation. Historically, Bitcoin tends to remain in a bull market when trading above the model and shifts into a bear market regime when trading below it.

In April 2025, Bitcoin fell to about $76,000 and bounced precisely at the model’s value at that time, highlighting it as a key support level. Much of 2025 saw the price trading at a premium of roughly 50% above the model, whereas in 2024, Bitcoin hovered close to the model. During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin traded at a discount of up to 50% of the model, while earlier bull markets saw larger multiples: prices doubled the model in 2021 and quintupled it in 2017.

As Bitcoin has matured, extreme premiums appear less likely. Currently, the Difficulty Regression Model indicates that Bitcoin is trading near its production cost, suggesting a fair value zone. This assessment is reinforced by Metcalfe’s Law-based valuations, which also place Bitcoin near fair value around $90,000.