Bitcoin’s Key Metrics Suggest Bull Market Could Be in Early Stages

While some investors view Q4 as signaling the end of the current market cycle, long-term indicators point to the possibility that Bitcoin’s bull run may still have significant upside.

Many market participants are framing Q4 as the close of the cycle, but two critical metrics suggest otherwise. According to Glassnode, the 200-week moving average (200WMA)—a widely followed long-term trend indicator—has recently breached $53,000, maintaining its historically upward trajectory.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s realized price—the average price at which all circulating BTC last moved on-chain—has climbed above the 200WMA to $54,000.

Historical patterns reinforce the significance of this development. During past bull markets, the realized price consistently stayed above the 200WMA, while in bear markets, it fell below. For instance:

• In the 2017 and 2021 bull runs, the realized price steadily rose above the 200WMA, widening the gap before eventually dropping below it, marking the start of bear markets.
• During the 2022 downturn, the realized price fell below the 200WMA, but it has now moved back above it.

Historically, once Bitcoin’s realized price remains above the long-term 200-week moving average, the market has tended to push higher, suggesting the bull market could still be in its early stages.