The signal last turned positive on Jan. 15. Its continued failure to rebound after the Feb. 5 recovery suggests U.S. demand has not simply paused — it remains materially absent.

Following the Feb. 5 sell-off, the widely tracked Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index briefly hinted at stabilization. That recovery quickly faded.

Data from Coinglass shows the premium has now stayed below zero for 40 consecutive days, marking the longest negative streak since 2023. The current reading stands at -0.0467%, largely unchanged from two weeks ago, when a sharp contraction from -0.22% fueled speculation that U.S. buyers were stepping in near the lows.

The index measures the price differential between bitcoin on Coinbase and the broader global average. Because Coinbase is commonly used as a proxy for U.S. institutional and dollar-based flows, a persistent negative premium indicates that American investors are either selling more aggressively than international counterparts or refraining from deploying fresh capital.

The prior record — roughly 30 straight days of negative premium — occurred during the October 2025 drawdown. That streak ended when a strong price rebound brought U.S. buyers back into the market. This time, although bitcoin recovered as much as 15% from its Feb. 5 intraday low and reclaimed levels above $62,000, the premium failed to follow.

The divergence highlights a shift in demand composition. Price action improved, but the recovery appears to have been driven largely by non-U.S. flows, activity outside U.S. trading hours, or liquidity beyond Coinbase’s order books.

There is a modestly constructive trend: since early February, the discount has gradually narrowed from -0.22% toward -0.05%. While conditions are improving, the premium has yet to flip positive — a development that historically aligns with sustained accumulation phases rather than short-lived relief rallies.

Meanwhile, U.S. Google searches for “bitcoin zero” surged to record highs earlier this month, even as global search interest remained relatively flat.

Taken together, these signals point to weakening conviction among American investors — a dynamic not yet mirrored across global markets