Bitcoin’s rebound from last weekend stalled after approaching $74,000, with the cryptocurrency retreating below $71,000 as buying momentum eased.

By mid-day Thursday in East Asia, bitcoin was trading near $70,987, down roughly 2.2% over 24 hours. The surge from Saturday’s war-driven low around $64,000 to Thursday’s peak represented a roughly 15% gain in five days, though about a third of that advance has since been retraced.

Technical analysts point to key resistance levels behind the pause. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief analyst at FxPro, said bitcoin ran into the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and just below the 50-day moving average — two levels that often trigger selling during bear-market rallies.

The 61.8% Fibonacci level marks roughly two-thirds of a prior decline and historically signals where countertrend rallies tend to lose momentum. The 50-day moving average reflects the average closing price over the past 50 days and can act as a break-even point where investors take profits. With both levels converging near $74,000, the area became a crowded technical zone.

Kuptsikevich noted that short-covering contributed to the surge, with bearish traders forced to exit positions. “Bulls still need to prove the bear market is over,” he said.

Bitunix analysts highlighted a similar structure. Short liquidations were concentrated near $74,000, long leverage clusters remain around $70,000, and secondary liquidity pools lie near $64,000, forming a clearly defined range for the next potential move.

Despite the pullback, weekly performance for major cryptocurrencies remains positive. Bitcoin is up 5.4% over seven days, Ether gained 2.7% to $2,080, BNB rose 3.1% to $648, and Solana added 2.1% to $88.39. Laggards included Dogecoin, down 3.7%, and XRP, nearly flat at a 0.2% decline.

The macro backdrop remains complicated. Asia’s benchmark equities, tracked by MSCI, have dropped 6.4% since the Iran conflict escalated, heading for their worst weekly performance since March 2020. The U.S. dollar is on track for its strongest week since November 2024, while oil prices are posting their largest weekly gain since 2022 — conditions that typically weigh on risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

Friday brought some relief, with Asian equities recovering early losses, the dollar softening, and crude easing after reports that the U.S. is weighing measures to curb rising energy costs.

Geopolitical uncertainty persists. The United States Senate failed to block ongoing military actions against Iran, leaving both the duration and economic impact of the conflict uncertain. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth estimated operations could last three to eight weeks, while disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to pressure energy markets.

For bitcoin, $70,000 — which served as resistance over the past month — now acts as a critical support level. Holding above it would suggest the breakout is genuine, while a drop below could put the $64,000 floor back in play.