Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick’s bullish outlook comes as spot Bitcoin ETF inflows return to positive territory, oil prices decline, and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong suggests Bitcoin may have already bottomed near $60,000.

Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said Bitcoin (BTC) may already have formed a cycle low, arguing that improving capital flows, renewed corporate accumulation, and easing macroeconomic conditions are setting the stage for a potential recovery.

The updated view reflects a shift in sentiment after several months of pressure on crypto markets driven by geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and sustained outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Last Friday, Kendrick told clients that Bitcoin’s drop to around $59,000 likely represented the cycle bottom. However, he highlighted three conditions needed for confirmation: renewed buying from Strategy (MSTR), a return to positive ETF inflows, and continued weakness in oil prices.

By Monday, all three conditions had been met.

Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, disclosed a purchase of 1,587 BTC last week. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $86 million in net inflows on Friday after a prolonged period of outflows. Meanwhile, oil prices continued to soften, easing inflation and bond yield pressures.

“Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring,” Kendrick wrote.

ETF flows remain a key focus, as spot Bitcoin ETFs have become one of the most important demand drivers since their launch in January 2024. Kendrick also noted that recent outflows were among the largest since inception, suggesting some investors may have been reallocating ahead of major IPO activity such as SpaceX, though he described that interpretation as anecdotal.

Broader market conditions have also improved, with easing regulatory uncertainty around crypto derivatives in the U.S. and growing institutional participation supporting sentiment. Kraken also recently launched regulated perpetual futures for U.S. customers, further expanding onshore crypto market infrastructure.

Corporate treasury allocations to Bitcoin continue to provide additional support to demand.

However, Kendrick emphasized that one key technical hurdle remains.

He noted that Bitcoin has repeatedly formed lower highs during recent rallies and said a decisive break above $83,000 — the level reached in early May — is required to confirm a stronger uptrend. Bitcoin was trading near $66,300 at press time, up about 1% over 24 hours.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong also said on Monday that Bitcoin may have already bottomed near $60,000 and that he remains highly bullish on its long-term outlook.

If Bitcoin breaks through resistance, Kendrick believes it would further strengthen the case that a new bullish cycle is underway.