Bitcoin has been riding a strong upward trend recently, but as it heads into this week’s Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas, traders remain cautious. Historical patterns suggest these events often trigger sell-offs, turning what could be celebratory moments into challenging trading periods.

Currently trading just above $109,000, near all-time highs, Bitcoin faces a critical test of whether it can defy the so-called conference curse.

Galaxy Research’s analysis of price behavior across five previous Bitcoin conferences—from San Francisco in 2019 to Nashville in 2024—shows a recurring theme: Bitcoin typically underperforms during and after these gatherings.

Take 2019, for example: Bitcoin dropped 10% during the conference and suffered a 24% decline in the following month. The 2022 Miami conference followed a similar script with a minor 1% dip during the event and a sharp 29% plunge thereafter. Bear markets influenced these results, but even bull market years like 2023 showed muted or slightly negative performance around conference times.

At last year’s Nashville conference, despite a 4% gain during the event sparked by Donald Trump’s announcement of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, Bitcoin swiftly lost 20% soon after amid global risk-off sentiment triggered by the yen carry trade unwind.

This year, the presence of Vice President J.D. Vance and increasing institutional participation could change the narrative. Still, traders face a psychological hurdle: conference weeks have historically acted as sell-the-news triggers. Bitcoin’s challenge is not just technical but also overcoming investor psychology shaped by past trends.