Cantor Fitzgerald Sees a Milder, Institution-Driven Crypto Winter in 2026

Cantor Fitzgerald anticipates the onset of a crypto winter, though one expected to be less volatile and increasingly shaped by institutional participation, DeFi, tokenization, and regulatory clarity.

Bitcoin (BTC $88,929.75) may enter a prolonged correction consistent with its historical four-year cycle. Analyst Brett Knoblauch notes bitcoin is about 85 days past its peak, with prices potentially testing Strategy’s (MSTR) breakeven near $75,000. Unlike past downturns, this phase is unlikely to trigger mass liquidations, as institutional players are now the dominant market force, creating a divergence between token prices and underlying activity in DeFi, tokenized assets, and crypto infrastructure.

Tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs), including credit products, U.S. Treasuries, and equities, has tripled in value in 2025 to $18.5 billion, with projections surpassing $50 billion in 2026 as more institutions adopt on-chain settlement.

Decentralized exchanges (DEXs), particularly for perpetual futures, are gaining market share from centralized venues. Regulatory clarity through the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY) provides a framework for institutional engagement and compliance for decentralized protocols.

On-chain prediction markets, including sports betting, have grown rapidly, attracting platforms like Robinhood (HOOD), Coinbase (COIN), and Gemini (GEMI).

Risks remain: bitcoin trades only 17% above Strategy’s cost basis, and digital asset trusts have slowed accumulation. Still, Cantor sees the market laying the groundwork for stronger infrastructure and deeper institutional adoption despite cooler prices.