Citizens Initiates Coverage on Circle With Market Perform Rating Amid Stablecoin Growth

U.S. bank Citizens has begun coverage of Circle Internet (CRCL), assigning a market perform rating, noting that while the company is well-positioned to capitalize on rising stablecoin adoption, its current valuation already prices in much of the potential upside.

Circle, the issuer of the second-largest stablecoin USDC and euro-pegged EURC, has built a comprehensive infrastructure suite, including a payments network, cross-chain protocol, and programmable wallets. The firm is also developing Arc, a layer-1 blockchain intended to serve as a backbone for programmable money in payments, trading, and tokenization—an initiative Citizens views as central to the future of stablecoin-based finance.

Stablecoins, cryptocurrencies pegged to real-world assets like the U.S. dollar or gold, are increasingly used for payments and cross-border transfers. Tether’s USDT remains the largest with a market cap of roughly $175 billion. Analysts at Citizens, led by Devin Ryan, see the stablecoin market at an inflection point, with the total market cap potentially expanding from $300 billion today to $3 trillion by 2030 as regulatory clarity from the U.S. GENIUS Act, Europe’s MiCA, and other frameworks boosts adoption.

Circle’s USDC supply has doubled year-over-year to around $74 billion, fully backed by cash and treasuries. Citizens highlights the company’s compliance-first approach as a competitive advantage, complemented by a strong capital position with over $1 billion in cash post-IPO and follow-on offerings, providing flexibility for investments and acquisitions.

However, at $133 per share, Circle trades at premium multiples of 39x and 23x EV/2026E and 2027E EBITDA, which Citizens notes reflects the company’s leadership but limits upside unless adoption or monetization accelerates.

Key metrics to watch include USDC growth, margin trends, fee revenue ramp, and interest-rate sensitivity. Upcoming catalysts cited by Citizens include new payment corridors, enterprise partnerships, Arc’s testnet launch, and MiCA implementation. Risks—such as yield compression, Coinbase distribution, competition, and regulation—remain manageable.

Circle shares rose in early trading to around $134.40.