Clear Street launched coverage of Bakkt (BKKT) with a buy rating and a $14 price target, implying 44% upside after a steep year-to-date decline, the broker said Tuesday. Bakkt shares were up 0.7%, trading around $9.83 in early Wednesday sessions, though the stock has fallen more than 60% this year versus an 11% gain for the S&P 500.

The firm has streamlined operations, selling non-core units like Loyalty and Custody to focus on its blockchain-native payments platform. Bakkt now operates on two core pillars: Crypto Services for institutions and its Digital Transfer and Remittance (DTR) platform, which provides stablecoin payment infrastructure. Trading at just 2.9x projected 2027 EV/EBITDA, the company is positioned to capture share in the $190 trillion cross-border payments market, Clear Street analysts led by Brian Dobson wrote.

Revenue is projected to grow 14% annually through 2027, with DTR driving both scale and profitability. Stablecoin transactions deliver nearly double the margins of crypto services, supporting 66% annual gross profit growth. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to turn positive by early 2026 and reach $49 million by 2027, aided by a $60 million cost reset.

DTR is set to expand to 36 countries by late 2025 and more than 90 by 2026, with transaction volume forecast at $2.6 billion by 2027. Bakkt’s institutional-first approach targets regulated partners, such as remittance firms and neobanks, leveraging its BitLicense and 50+ state money transmitter licenses for rapid scaling.

With high-margin stablecoin flows, operating leverage, and a potential re-rating to peer multiples, Clear Street views Bakkt as an underappreciated stablecoin infrastructure play with significant upside. Rival broker Benchmark also initiated coverage with a buy rating and a $13 target on Monday.