Coinbase Sees Room for Crypto Rally to Continue in Q4

Coinbase analysts are maintaining an optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter, suggesting that a combination of strong liquidity, a favorable macroeconomic environment, and supportive regulatory signals could sustain the crypto market rally.

Bitcoin (BTC) $115,932.17, in particular, is positioned to benefit from ongoing macro tailwinds and may outperform market expectations, according to analysts David Duong and Colin Basco in a Wednesday report.

“Barring a shock to energy prices, the immediate risk of disrupting the current U.S. monetary policy path is quite low,” the analysts noted. On-chain demand from digital asset treasuries (DATs) is also expected to provide a price floor.

One historical concern for investors has been seasonality, with BTC declining in six consecutive Septembers between 2017 and 2022. However, this trend did not occur in 2023 or 2024, and Coinbase pointed out that the small sample size and wide variance in outcomes limit the predictive value of seasonal indicators.

A more significant factor, the report noted, is the stage of the DAT cycle. Publicly disclosed DATs currently hold over 1 million BTC ($110 billion), 4.9 million ETH ($21.3 billion), and 8.9 million SOL ($1.8 billion) as of September 10.

Late entrants are increasingly targeting altcoins further down the risk curve, creating a “player-versus-player” dynamic that favors large-cap tokens but may eventually lead to consolidation among smaller DAT players, the analysts said.

Looking ahead to Q4, Coinbase maintains a constructive outlook, anticipating that strong liquidity, supportive macro conditions, and regulatory momentum will continue to underpin crypto markets.