Crypto Enters Bear Phase as Market Momentum Reverses: Coinbase Institutional

The latest research from Coinbase Institutional suggests the crypto market has entered a bearish cycle, with both Bitcoin and major altcoins losing momentum and sentiment deteriorating.

David Duong, Head of Research at Coinbase Institutional, noted that Bitcoin’s drop below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) in early March marks a shift toward long-term bearish conditions. Meanwhile, the broader COIN50 index, tracking the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market cap, has been in bear market territory since late February.

“The 200DMA model flags a significant regime change,” Duong wrote, emphasizing that crypto bear markets are less about strict 20% price declines and more about structural shifts—such as weakening liquidity and declining investor confidence.

Traditional financial definitions often fall short in the crypto space, where high volatility makes steep corrections common. Duong argued that metrics like percentage drawdowns fail to capture the full scope of market sentiment or risk reallocation.

Coinbase’s z-score model, which tracks Bitcoin’s performance relative to its average over the past year, also confirms the bull cycle ended in February. Since then, the model has shown “neutral” conditions, indicating a cooling market that hasn’t yet found a new direction.

The outlook is especially challenging for altcoins, as venture capital interest remains subdued. Despite Bitcoin reaching record highs above $70,000 earlier this year, crypto VC funding is still down 50–60% compared to 2021–2022 levels.

Still, Duong sees a potential inflection point later this year: “We believe the market could bottom out between mid and late Q2 2025, potentially setting the stage for a stronger third quarter.”