December Fed Rate Cut Odds Split Down the Middle

Investor confidence in a December Federal Reserve rate cut has weakened, with odds slipping to just 52%, reflecting a sharp rise in uncertainty heading into next month’s policy meeting.

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, markets now assign only a near-even probability that the Fed will deliver a 25 basis point rate cut at its Dec. 10 meeting. That’s a steep drop from the 95% certainty priced in a month ago and 65% just one week earlier. If implemented, the cut would lower the federal funds target range to 3.5%-3.75%.

The fading likelihood of near-term easing is weighing on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin was trading around $103,000 at the time of writing, showing little movement on the day, based on CoinDesk data.

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