A tentative U.S.–China trade agreement could help unlock upside momentum for Bitcoin (BTC), according to crypto derivatives exchange Deribit, as market sentiment shows early signs of recovery following the sharp downturn earlier this month.

Investors are focused on the upcoming meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea this week, after Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting Nov. 1 in retaliation for Beijing’s tightening control over rare-earth mineral exports.

Trump has reportedly voiced optimism about reaching a deal, fueling hopes that easing geopolitical tensions could bolster risk appetite across global markets — including crypto.

Data from Amberdata show a notable shift in sentiment in the Deribit BTC options market, where demand for protective puts has softened. The volatility premium of downside puts over calls has narrowed to 2–3%, down from about 5% following the Oct. 10 market crash triggered by tariff concerns.

Still, overall flows have remained bearishly skewed since the sell-off, with traders favoring put longs, put spreads, and call overwriting strategies — a cautious stance that reflects lingering macro uncertainty.

Bitcoin has since staged a partial recovery, rebounding to around $114,000 after plunging from $126,000 to nearly $105,000 earlier in October, according to CoinDesk data.

Deribit analysts suggested that a credible signal of progress in U.S.–China negotiations could shift positioning back toward bullish exposure, potentially setting the stage for a broader rebound if macro headwinds begin to ease.