In 2025, investors have favored gold and silver over bitcoin (BTC $87,783.77) as hedges against potential declines in fiat currency.

Gold has climbed nearly 70% since January, while silver has surged roughly 150%, sharply outpacing bitcoin, which has fallen about 6% during the same period. Analysts attribute the rally to the “debasement trade,” a strategy that involves buying perceived stores of value in anticipation of fiat depreciation driven by expansive monetary policy and growing fiscal deficits.

Bitcoin bulls had initially cited the debasement trade as a catalyst for strong year-end forecasts. However, the cryptocurrency’s rally stalled above $126,000 in early October and has since retraced below $90,000.

Gold’s technical performance has been notable. According to The Kobeissi Letter, the metal has stayed above its 200-day simple moving average — a key long-term trend indicator — for roughly 550 consecutive trading days, marking the second-longest streak on record.

Crypto analysts remain optimistic that bitcoin could catch up next year. “Gold has been leading BTC by roughly 26 weeks,” said Lewis Harland, portfolio manager at Re7 Capital. “The metal’s strength reflects expectations for further currency debasement and fiscal strain in 2026, a backdrop that historically supports both assets, with bitcoin showing greater volatility.”

Polymarket traders reflect this sentiment, assigning bitcoin a 40% chance of being 2026’s top-performing asset, versus 33% for gold and 25% for equities.