Bitcoin Lags S&P 500 and Gold, but History Suggests a Catch-Up May Be Coming

Bitcoin’s recent underperformance has drawn attention, especially as gold continues its record-breaking run, surpassing $3,800 per ounce on Tuesday. Yet, gold isn’t the only asset outperforming the world’s largest cryptocurrency—U.S. stocks, led by the S&P 500, have also been hitting new highs, hovering just below 6,700.

Despite Bitcoin trading below $115,000, it remains in a bull market. Its performance has periodically diverged from U.S. equities throughout the current cycle.

The first divergence occurred between March and July 2024, when the S&P 500 climbed from roughly 4,000 to 4,600, while Bitcoin fell from just under $30,000 to $25,000. A second divergence unfolded from April to October 2024, as the S&P 500 rallied from 5,200 to 6,000 with only a brief summer pause. Bitcoin, in contrast, did not follow until November, coinciding with the presidential election results.

The most recent divergence has persisted since May 2025, with the S&P 500 moving steadily higher while Bitcoin consolidates in a $110,000–$120,000 range. Although BTC reached new all-time highs in August, those gains were quickly reversed, returning to the lower end of its prior range.

History shows that Bitcoin and the S&P 500 often trend together but can diverge for extended periods. Observing past cycles, analysts suggest Bitcoin is likely positioned to catch up to both gold and U.S. equities in the months ahead.