• Hyperliquid traders are valuing Unitree at close to $38 billion, versus approximately $9 billion based on its IPO price, creating substantial liquidation risk for leveraged positions when the stock starts trading, Allium analysts said.
• Crypto derivatives traders are betting that Unitree Robotics could be worth more than four times its IPO valuation following its debut on the public market.
• Unitree set its Shanghai STAR Market IPO price at 150.80 yuan ($22.37) per share, resulting in an estimated valuation of around $9 billion. However, pre-IPO perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid were trading between $92 and $94 on Friday, pointing to an implied valuation near $38 billion, according to Allium.
• The premium reflects strong expectations for Unitree, one of China’s best-known robotics manufacturers. The Hangzhou-based company, founded in 2016, develops quadruped and humanoid robots for research, industrial and consumer applications. Its revenue surged 335% to $253 million last year, while humanoid robot shipments exceeded 5,500 units, Allium reported.
• Unitree’s IPO was reportedly oversubscribed by retail investors roughly 8,000 times, with its shares expected to begin trading between Aug. 17 and Aug. 21.
• The company’s listing is also becoming a major test for the fast-growing pre-IPO perpetual futures market in crypto.
• Hyperliquid has become a major venue for onchain perpetual futures, allowing traders to take leveraged long and short positions without an expiration date. The platform has expanded these markets beyond crypto into assets such as oil and gold and, more recently, companies preparing for public listings.
• Pre-IPO perpetuals do not represent equity in the underlying company and cannot be exchanged for actual shares. Instead, they offer a synthetic way to trade a company’s implied valuation before its stock has an established market price. Once the stock begins trading, the perp is expected to move toward the underlying share price.
• Recent IPOs have demonstrated the potential of these contracts for early price discovery.
• A pre-IPO perpetual linked to Chinese memory-chip maker CXMT came within 2.5% of its Shanghai opening price when the company debuted in July, according to Allium.
• Hyperliquid traders also correctly predicted in June that Elon Musk’s SpaceX would begin trading above its $135 IPO price.

Wide gap raises liquidation risk

• Unitree has already attracted significant activity across Hyperliquid. The Trade.xyz and Paragon markets have together recorded $9.1 million in open interest and around $59 million in trading volume, Allium said.
• The two contracts traded within an average 1.6% of each other when both markets were operating. Their latest prices of $92-$94 imply more than 300% upside from Unitree’s IPO price.
• That premium, however, leaves leveraged bulls vulnerable to significant losses even if Unitree posts a strong first-day performance.
• Allium estimates that a debut at twice the IPO price could still liquidate about one-third of existing long exposure.
• At an opening price of $45, for example, Unitree would double from its IPO level but remain roughly 52% below the current perp price, potentially liquidating around 33% of long positions. A debut near $128, meanwhile, would represent almost six times the IPO price and could liquidate approximately 53% of short exposure. If the stock opens close to the current perp price, neither side would face significant liquidations.
• Trade.xyz, the larger market, is nearly evenly positioned, with about $6.5 million in long exposure and $6.6 million in short exposure.
• Smaller traders are more bearish, with positions worth less than $50,000 being roughly 70% short by value.
• Allium said the eventual IPO opening price will determine which side takes the hit, as any meaningful deviation from the current perp price could force one group of traders into liquidation.