Bitcoin Surges 550% Since FTX Crash, Could Hit $1M by Year-End, Says Analyst

Bitcoin (BTC) has risen approximately 550% from its lows following the FTX collapse, a dramatic drop that saw the cryptocurrency fall to around $15,500 in November 2022. At that time, the market was filled with fear, with many questioning whether Bitcoin would ever recover.

However, just over two years later, Bitcoin is trading above $100,000, with optimism fueled by the prospect of a more crypto-friendly U.S. administration under President Donald Trump, despite the absence of any clear crypto policy announcements from the White House.

The Halving Cycle: A Key Factor in Bitcoin’s Rise

Bitcoin’s historical price patterns often follow its four-year halving cycle, where the reward for mining new blocks is cut in half, reducing the supply of Bitcoin. This structural event tends to lead to significant price appreciation, especially in the year following the halving. The current cycle shows similarities to previous ones, with Bitcoin following the expected trajectory of post-halving growth.

Bitcoin has already surged by around 550% from its cycle lows following the FTX collapse (marked by the black line on the chart). Comparing this to previous cycles, such as the 2015 to 2018 cycle (depicted by the blue line), Bitcoin also saw a similar rise in value following the cycle low on January 14, 2015.

Historical Comparisons Suggest Continued Growth

Using Glassnode data, which takes the daily closing price at 00:00 UTC, we can see that during the 2018 to 2022 cycle (illustrated by the green line), Bitcoin was up around 1,300% at the same point in the cycle—more than double the current increase. If Bitcoin continues to track the 2015-2018 pattern, it could rise 1,100% more by the end of Q1 2025, pushing its price to around $186,000.

The cycle peak could come as early as October 2025, with predictions indicating a price of $1.7 million per Bitcoin, an 11,000% increase from its cycle low.

Correlation Between Bitcoin and U.S. Presidential Terms

Looking at Bitcoin’s performance during U.S. presidential terms, Bitcoin Archive on X noted that Bitcoin increased 20x during Trump’s first term in office. If Bitcoin were to repeat a 10x return from its current price, it could reach $1 million by the end of this cycle.

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s recovery from the depths of the FTX collapse, along with its historical patterns of post-halving growth, suggests that the cryptocurrency could see significant price increases. With continued institutional adoption and the potential for a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment, Bitcoin reaching $1 million by year-end is within the realm of possibility.