Bitcoin’s “Moonvember” Myth: Data Shows the Gains Aren’t What They Seem

November 3, 2025

For years, crypto traders have hailed November as Bitcoin’s strongest month — even dubbing it “Moonvember” in a nod to its supposedly explosive historical rallies. But a closer look at the data suggests that reputation may be overstated.

According to CoinGlass’s Bitcoin Monthly Returns heat map, Bitcoin’s average (mean) November gain from 2013 through 2025 stands at roughly 42%, the highest among all months. That figure has helped fuel the narrative that November is Bitcoin’s most bullish stretch of the year — even outperforming the famed “Uptober” period.

However, the data tells a more nuanced story. The 42% average is heavily skewed by a single extreme outlier: November 2013, when Bitcoin surged more than 449% during its first major bull cycle.

Removing that anomaly brings the median November return down to just 8.8%, offering a far more realistic view of the month’s typical performance.

That difference between mean and median is critical. The mean reflects the mathematical average, which can be distorted by rare events, while the median better represents a typical outcome across market cycles.

Looking across the November column in the CoinGlass heat map reveals wide variance between years of strong rallies and steep losses:

• 2018: –36.6%
• 2019: –17.3%
• 2021: –7.1%
• 2022: –16.2%
• 2020: +43.0%
• 2024: +37.3%
• 2025: +0.5%

The takeaway? While November has delivered several standout rallies, it has also seen deep drawdowns, making it a month of extremes rather than consistency.

By comparison, October has shown more stable strength, with an average gain of +19.9% and a median of +14.7%.

For traders, this underscores a broader truth: seasonality is descriptive, not predictive. While history can offer context, meaningful signals come from the charts — not the calendar. Confirmation through resistance breaks, improving breadth, and higher volume still carries far more weight than memes about “Moonvember.”