Robinhood’s Crypto Boom Cools in Q1 as Trading Volumes Retreat, JPMorgan Warns

Robinhood’s record-breaking crypto revenue surge in the final quarter of 2024 may be short-lived, with analysts anticipating a sharp cooldown in early 2025.

According to JPMorgan’s Kenneth Worthington, Robinhood is likely to report a significant decline in digital asset trading when it releases first-quarter results Wednesday after the market close. The slowdown comes after the company enjoyed a massive 700% jump in crypto trading revenue in Q4, helping to drive overall transaction-based income higher.

That momentum now appears to be fading. Worthington estimates crypto trading volume on the platform dropped to $52 billion in Q1, down from $71 billion the previous quarter. He attributes the decline to a broader market retreat and a shift in investor sentiment, describing it as a “risk-off” environment that sapped enthusiasm for speculative assets.

Robinhood’s total assets under custody are also projected to fall by 5% from the prior quarter to $183.3 billion, though they remain up 41% compared to a year earlier. While early April saw some renewed retail activity in response to U.S. trade policy developments, Worthington suggests that brief uptick won’t be enough to change the quarter’s overall trajectory.

The analyst also pointed to weakening demand for margin and derivatives trading — trends mirrored at competitors like Interactive Brokers — as further signs of investor caution.

JPMorgan remains neutral on Robinhood stock, trimming its price target by $1 to $44, implying roughly 10% downside from the current price just below $49.