Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurien Timmer, has declared an end to the latest bitcoin bull run, while pointing to continued strength in gold’s long-term uptrend.

Timmer, a long-time bitcoin bull, is among the latest market strategists to turn more cautious on bitcoin, arguing that the asset appears to be following its well-established four-year cycle. From both a historical analog and time-based perspective, he says the current phase closely mirrors previous cycles.

According to Timmer, bitcoin’s October peak near $125,000 — reached after roughly 145 months of cumulative gains — fits neatly within that framework. He notes that bitcoin bear markets, often referred to as “crypto winters,” have typically lasted about a year, leading him to view 2026 as a potential pause following the latest halving-driven cycle.

“While I remain a secular bull on bitcoin, my concern is that bitcoin may well have ended another four-year halving phase, both in price and time,” Timmer wrote on X. “If we visually line up all the bull markets, we can see that the October high of $125,000 after 145 months of rallying fits pretty well with what one might expect. Bitcoin winters have lasted about a year, so my sense is that 2026 could be a year off for bitcoin. Support is at $65,000 to $75,000.”

In contrast, Timmer highlighted gold’s resilience and strong performance in 2025, noting that the metal remains firmly in a bull market while bitcoin has struggled. He does not expect a near-term mean reversion between the two assets.

Gold is up roughly 65% year to date, outperforming growth in the global money supply, Timmer said. He added that during recent market pullbacks, gold has retained most of its gains — behavior he views as consistent with a sustained bull market.